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Red127
35352.1
573662.8
56421.0
Blue136
642323.2
28740.2
901638.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141100050200127136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+1
+9Endgame
Fouls+9
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave6
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points10
20Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +5
16Coral scored#14
59Coral points52
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#3
6Processor points18
12Net points12
18Algae points30
77Total teleop82
Reef
8L4#4
6L3#6
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#22
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +9
14Foul points32
127Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.80.4
61.561.1
Auto21.3
Teleop33.9
End7.6
red by 22.6
287
#4
40.20.1
39.940.0
Auto5.9
Teleop31.5
End2.9
Second
353
#5
52.10.4
50.850.4
Auto11.9
Teleop38.4
End1.9
red by 13.5
9016
#13
38.70.1
38.438.4
Auto7.1
Teleop28.3
End3.3
Third
564
#22
21.00.4
19.719.3
Auto4.8
Teleop14.9
End1.3
blue by 2.3
6423
#21
23.20.1
22.923.0
Auto4.4
Teleop17.1
End1.8