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Red107
429917.5
226524.4
929527.9
Blue44
943713.8
664817.2
76683.2
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions753805010015010744

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+55Teleop
+55Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
15Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +46
16Coral scored#6
56Coral points20
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
6Processor points0
12Net points8
18Algae points8
74Total teleop28
Reef
4L4#3
7L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
14Foul points6
107Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9295
#21
27.91.1
25.426.5
Auto5.8
Teleop20.7
End1.4
red by 10.8
6648
#36
17.20.7
20.019.3
Auto3.7
Teleop11.7
End1.7
Second
2265
#23
24.41.1
19.921.0
Auto6.3
Teleop16.5
End1.6
red by 10.7
9437
#35
13.81.1
10.89.7
Auto2.5
Teleop9.3
End1.9
Third
4299
#38
17.51.9
16.718.5
Auto3.1
Teleop13.0
End1.3
red by 14.3
7668
#52
3.20.7
5.04.4
Auto1.2
Teleop1.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned13%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed