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Red66
659330.8
457129.8
66367.9
Blue36
35425.9
80615.6
1047115.2
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions766120401001201406636

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
3Leave0
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points6
19Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +17
7Coral scored#3
25Coral points12
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
35Total teleop18
Reef
3L4#2
4L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
12Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
6Foul points6
66Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.80.4
23.423.0
Auto8.4
Teleop17.2
End5.2
red by 4.9
354
#26
25.92.8
25.022.2
Auto6.9
Teleop15.0
End4.0
Second
29.80.4
28.628.2
Auto6.1
Teleop22.8
End0.9
red by 14.2
806
#42
15.61.7
16.314.6
Auto4.7
Teleop9.9
End1.0
Third
6636
#29
7.90.4
13.513.1
Auto4.0
Teleop2.1
End1.9
blue by 7.2
15.22.8
13.811.1
Auto2.4
Teleop9.1
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed