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Red73
234425.2
51236.9
922032.9
Blue15
76683.2
37607.8
542111.8
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions684102060801001201407315

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+62Teleop
+58Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +55
12Coral scored#1
42Coral points5
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
60Total teleop5
Reef
7L4#1
5L3#0
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
19Game pieces#2
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
0Foul points0
73Total score15

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.92.3
25.227.5
Auto6.5
Teleop26.0
End0.4
red by 21.1
5421
#44
11.82.0
17.915.8
Auto4.0
Teleop6.5
End1.4
Second
2344
#40
25.22.3
18.620.9
Auto3.0
Teleop21.2
End1.0
red by 17.4
3760
#16
7.82.0
10.98.9
Auto2.1
Teleop4.7
End1.1
Third
5123
#46
6.92.3
8.510.8
Auto0.3
Teleop6.2
End0.4
red by 3.7
7668
#52
3.21.2
4.63.4
Auto1.2
Teleop1.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
16%Auto oddsEarned17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed9%Barge oddsMissed