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Red162
301565.9
151826.0
317361.8
Blue151
691129.4
34060.7
461161.1
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165153100120140180200220240162151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+5Teleop
+5Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave9
9Coral scored#4
44Coral points21
47Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +12
18Coral scored#20
65Coral points71
1Processor algae#2
5Net algae#5
6Processor points12
20Net points20
26Algae points32
91Total teleop103
Reef
13L4#12
8L3#4
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#31
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +11
8Foul points2
162Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.90.0
65.765.8
Auto15.8
Teleop40.4
End9.7
red by 4.8
61.10.1
58.558.6
Auto15.6
Teleop39.8
End5.7
Second
61.80.0
61.661.6
Auto16.4
Teleop37.0
End8.4
red by 1.2
340
#2
60.70.1
58.058.2
Auto18.1
Teleop34.7
End7.9
Third
1518
#34
26.00.0
25.725.8
Auto4.5
Teleop20.3
End1.2
blue by 3.5
6911
#51
29.40.1
27.527.6
Auto3.7
Teleop23.5
End2.2