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Red178
34060.7
691129.4
461161.1
Blue148
300337.6
2045.5
178747.1
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14912980100120140160180200220178148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+40Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
6Leave9
9Coral scored#3
45Coral points17
51Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +15
20Coral scored#16
73Coral points56
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
12Processor points18
16Net points12
28Algae points30
101Total teleop86
Reef
13L4#5
8L3#7
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
178Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.11.2
56.457.6
Auto15.6
Teleop39.8
End5.7
red by 14.1
1787
#28
47.10.7
45.246.0
Auto10.4
Teleop29.1
End7.6
Second
340
#2
60.71.2
56.057.1
Auto18.1
Teleop34.7
End7.9
red by 15.2
20
#9
45.50.7
43.844.5
Auto5.2
Teleop32.5
End7.7
Third
6911
#51
29.40.9
25.926.8
Auto3.7
Teleop23.5
End2.2
blue by 8.2
3003
#14
37.60.7
35.936.6
Auto4.5
Teleop25.3
End7.7