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Red200
395117.6
37834.6
301561.0
Blue77
151826.6
63930.3
155925.6
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122965015020020077

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+45Teleop
+43Endgame
+123Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave6
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +24
13Coral scored#8
48Coral points28
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
70Total teleop46
Reef
7L4#4
5L3#3
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +123
86Foul points6
200Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.00.1
58.058.0
Auto18.3
Teleop36.8
End5.9
red by 30.6
639
#25
30.31.9
34.833.0
Auto4.1
Teleop22.1
End4.1
Second
378
#16
34.60.1
28.929.0
Auto5.9
Teleop25.2
End3.5
red by 8.0
1518
#10
26.61.9
27.225.3
Auto2.5
Teleop21.5
End2.6
Third
3951
#20
17.60.1
14.914.9
Auto5.3
Teleop6.8
End5.6
blue by 8.0
1559
#11
25.61.9
25.623.7
Auto5.4
Teleop15.0
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
16%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsEarned