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Red198
301561.0
1022321.8
317374.0
Blue71
159149.7
205327.1
151148.6
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16913810015020025019871

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+109Teleop
+121Endgame
+127Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
6Leave0
10Coral scored#5
48Coral points23
54Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +78
22Coral scored#7
80Coral points26
1Processor algae#1
7Net algae#1
6Processor points6
28Net points4
34Algae points10
114Total teleop36
Reef
11L4#3
12L3#5
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#1
40Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
24Cage & park12
24Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +127
6Foul points0
198Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.00.9
71.672.6
Auto18.3
Teleop46.1
End9.6
red by 24.3
49.71.3
50.749.4
Auto14.2
Teleop31.5
End4.0
Second
61.00.9
58.659.6
Auto18.3
Teleop36.8
End5.9
red by 12.4
48.61.3
49.648.3
Auto7.1
Teleop32.7
End8.7
Third
21.80.9
19.420.3
Auto3.7
Teleop14.6
End3.4
blue by 5.3
2053
#17
27.11.3
28.126.8
Auto9.7
Teleop17.2
End0.1