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Red168
301561.0
1022321.8
317374.0
Blue165
222854.7
37834.6
19145.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17414050100150200250168165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+17Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
3Leave3
9Coral scored#4
47Coral points20
50Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +10
27Coral scored#22
96Coral points80
1Processor algae#4
3Net algae#5
6Processor points24
12Net points20
18Algae points44
114Total teleop124
Reef
14L4#9
6L3#8
10L2#4
6L1 · trough#5
40Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +14
4Cage & park18
4Total endgame18
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
168Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.00.4
71.271.6
Auto18.3
Teleop46.1
End9.6
red by 19.3
54.70.9
51.051.9
Auto12.5
Teleop35.1
End7.0
Second
61.00.4
58.258.6
Auto18.3
Teleop36.8
End5.9
red by 15.3
191
#7
45.70.9
42.042.9
Auto10.3
Teleop33.2
End2.2
Third
21.80.4
19.019.4
Auto3.7
Teleop14.6
End3.4
blue by 12.9
378
#16
34.60.9
31.031.9
Auto5.9
Teleop25.2
End3.5