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Red78
1026220.3
696917.0
149332.4
Blue45
529827.8
971313.8
76686.5
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions664402060801007845

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+27Teleop
+27Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
11Coral scored#6
40Coral points20
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
50Total teleop30
Reef
6L4#3
5L3#2
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#9
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
6Foul points0
78Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.41.5
28.430.0
Auto10.4
Teleop22.0
End-0.0
red by 4.6
5298
#36Sur
27.80.3
18.618.9
Auto5.8
Teleop20.7
End1.3
Second
20.31.5
14.516.1
Auto3.2
Teleop14.4
End2.8
red by 6.5
9713
#28
13.80.3
9.49.7
Auto3.9
Teleop7.8
End2.2
Third
6969
#41Sur
17.01.5
15.216.7
Auto4.2
Teleop9.9
End2.9
red by 10.5
7668
#44
6.50.3
14.314.6
Auto1.0
Teleop4.3
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed