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Red86
287242.2
640121.5
1015216.5
Blue119
529827.8
573652.0
642317.9
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6284204010012014086119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+1Teleop
Endgame+9
Fouls+33
AutonomousBlue +11
9Leave0
2Coral scored#6
10Coral points30
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +12
12Coral scored#11
43Coral points41
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
63Total teleop51
Reef
6L4#6
3L3#4
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
18Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +33
0Foul points24
86Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.23.0
33.436.4
Auto10.4
Teleop28.5
End3.3
blue by 9.8
52.02.3
42.244.5
Auto18.4
Teleop27.5
End6.1
Second
6401
#42
21.53.0
15.118.0
Auto5.2
Teleop14.6
End1.7
blue by 6.3
5298
#36
27.82.3
17.119.3
Auto5.8
Teleop20.7
End1.3
Third
16.53.0
10.613.6
Auto3.7
Teleop12.3
End0.5
blue by 1.3
17.92.3
15.417.6
Auto4.5
Teleop11.2
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsEarned