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Red146
149349.4
703115.1
355033.6
Blue147
159151.7
552844.6
750432.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107121050150200250146147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+1Teleop
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points14
27Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +6
21Coral scored#21
75Coral points77
2Processor algae#4
5Net algae#3
12Processor points24
20Net points12
32Algae points36
107Total teleop113
Reef
6L4#9
10L3#7
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
146Total score147

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1493
#21
49.42.8
35.438.2
Auto12.9
Teleop35.5
End1.0
blue by 2.3
1591
#11
51.72.0
44.546.5
Auto14.0
Teleop33.3
End4.4
Second
3550
#23
33.62.5
28.631.1
Auto8.5
Teleop20.6
End4.4
blue by 11.0
5528
#29
44.61.8
34.035.8
Auto8.9
Teleop27.0
End8.8
Third
7031
#48
15.14.2
24.028.2
Auto3.5
Teleop8.9
End2.7
blue by 17.7
7504
#24
32.82.0
23.225.1
Auto5.1
Teleop25.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed68%Barge oddsEarned