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Red137
188036.1
146859.6
1071429.1
Blue138
395050.1
317125.6
159151.7
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118117100110130140137138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+13Teleop
+13Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +21
0Leave9
6Coral scored#8
30Coral points42
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +34
21Coral scored#12
77Coral points43
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
101Total teleop67
Reef
10L4#9
7L3#4
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#25
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points14
137Total score138

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1468
#19
59.61.0
58.659.6
Auto15.7
Teleop40.2
End3.7
red by 7.9
1591
#11
51.70.0
46.546.4
Auto14.0
Teleop33.3
End4.4
Second
1880
#30
36.11.0
27.628.6
Auto5.9
Teleop26.9
End3.3
blue by 14.0
3950
#14
50.10.0
41.741.7
Auto14.1
Teleop33.0
End2.9
Third
29.11.7
24.526.1
Auto6.8
Teleop19.0
End3.3
red by 3.5
3171
#49
25.60.0
25.225.2
Auto6.6
Teleop16.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned61%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsMissed