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Red116
691138.0
395050.1
775914.9
Blue114
149349.4
81038.8
771821.0
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions969695100105110116114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+6
Endgame+4
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
6Leave3
1Coral scored#5
3Coral points27
9Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +15
22Coral scored#13
79Coral points48
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
6Processor points18
12Net points16
18Algae points34
97Total teleop82
Reef
8L4#7
5L3#5
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
6Foul points0
116Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3950
#14
50.11.3
44.545.8
Auto14.1
Teleop33.0
End2.9
red by 0.7
1493
#21
49.41.7
40.942.6
Auto12.9
Teleop35.5
End1.0
Second
6911
#34
38.01.3
29.530.8
Auto4.0
Teleop31.4
End2.6
blue by 0.9
810
#26
38.81.7
34.536.2
Auto10.3
Teleop27.1
End1.5
Third
7759
#52
14.91.3
16.517.8
Auto4.3
Teleop8.8
End1.8
blue by 6.0
7718
#39
21.01.7
13.114.8
Auto3.9
Teleop15.2
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsMissed79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed