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Red149
318125.1
19156.9
151833.9
Blue146
286943.0
81038.8
146859.6
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10815050200149146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+3
+1Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave3
3Coral scored#7
17Coral points34
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +11
22Coral scored#20
78Coral points71
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
12Processor points12
24Net points20
36Algae points32
114Total teleop103
Reef
9L4#13
8L3#8
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#34
BargeRed +4
10Cage & park6
10Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
2Foul points0
149Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
191
#10
56.92.2
50.752.9
Auto17.4
Teleop35.2
End4.4
blue by 2.7
1468
#19
59.60.1
61.661.5
Auto15.7
Teleop40.2
End3.7
Second
1518
#22
33.92.2
33.435.6
Auto3.5
Teleop28.2
End2.1
blue by 9.1
2869
#13
43.00.1
38.838.7
Auto7.8
Teleop28.8
End6.4
Third
3181
#25
25.12.2
19.221.3
Auto5.0
Teleop18.7
End1.4
blue by 13.7
810
#26
38.80.1
36.236.0
Auto10.3
Teleop27.1
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed74%Barge oddsMissed