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Red175
179682.2
962435.2
260129.4
Blue106
395050.1
63940.7
2299.7
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16110450150200250175106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+57Teleop
+65Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
9Coral scored#3
44Coral points17
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +36
20Coral scored#16
71Coral points59
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#3
18Processor points6
24Net points12
42Algae points18
113Total teleop77
Reef
7L4#7
11L3#3
7L2#4
4L1 · trough#5
38Game pieces#23
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
4Foul points0
175Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.21.4
77.278.5
Auto22.4
Teleop49.2
End10.5
red by 32.1
3950
#14
50.10.4
47.747.3
Auto14.1
Teleop33.0
End2.9
Second
9624
#37
35.21.4
33.835.2
Auto9.1
Teleop23.3
End2.8
blue by 5.5
639
#38
40.70.4
42.842.4
Auto5.9
Teleop28.9
End5.9
Third
2601
#43
29.41.4
28.129.4
Auto6.7
Teleop22.1
End0.7
red by 19.8
229
#51
9.70.4
10.19.7
Auto1.8
Teleop6.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
55%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed