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Red211
159151.7
691138.0
87064.5
Blue186
445847.9
205341.1
317362.3
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions160160170180190210211186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+17Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave9
11Coral scored#8
55Coral points42
58Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +10
23Coral scored#26
81Coral points95
4Processor algae#2
6Net algae#3
24Processor points12
24Net points12
48Algae points24
129Total teleop119
Reef
11L4#12
10L3#9
6L2#10
7L1 · trough#3
44Game pieces#39
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
211Total score186

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
870
#8
64.51.2
63.364.5
Auto15.5
Teleop38.9
End10.1
red by 2.2
3173
#15
62.30.7
61.662.3
Auto15.1
Teleop37.5
End9.8
Second
1591
#11
51.71.2
50.551.7
Auto14.0
Teleop33.3
End4.4
red by 3.8
47.90.7
47.247.9
Auto14.4
Teleop31.1
End2.4
Third
6911
#34
38.01.2
36.737.9
Auto4.0
Teleop31.4
End2.6
blue by 3.2
2053
#27
41.10.7
40.441.1
Auto13.4
Teleop27.3
End0.5