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Red163
286943.0
304465.0
287550.8
Blue176
412258.1
42445.0
19156.9
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165170120140180200220240163176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+23
Endgame+13
Fouls+13
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave0
8Coral scored#9
41Coral points47
44Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +20
13Coral scored#25
47Coral points89
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
18Processor points12
28Net points12
46Algae points24
93Total teleop113
Reef
8L4#8
4L3#10
7L2#9
2L1 · trough#7
31Game pieces#39
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points0
163Total score176

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.00.1
64.965.0
Auto15.9
Teleop43.3
End5.8
red by 6.9
58.10.4
57.257.6
Auto13.4
Teleop34.0
End10.7
Second
50.80.1
50.750.8
Auto14.0
Teleop35.6
End1.3
blue by 6.1
191
#10
56.90.4
56.056.4
Auto17.4
Teleop35.2
End4.4
Third
2869
#13
43.00.1
42.943.0
Auto7.8
Teleop28.8
End6.4
blue by 1.9
424
#31
45.00.4
44.044.5
Auto7.1
Teleop30.4
End7.5