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Red191
179682.2
552844.6
662164.2
Blue197
2065.3
81038.8
146859.6
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions199167100150250300191197

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+26
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave3
4Coral scored#10
21Coral points48
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +5
24Coral scored#22
87Coral points78
2Processor algae#5
6Net algae#5
12Processor points30
24Net points20
36Algae points50
123Total teleop128
Reef
16L4#11
5L3#10
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#6
36Game pieces#42
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +6
2Foul points2
191Total score197

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.20.1
79.579.5
Auto22.4
Teleop49.2
End10.5
red by 16.9
20
#6
65.30.7
64.765.4
Auto10.0
Teleop46.0
End9.3
Second
64.20.1
61.561.6
Auto12.5
Teleop41.5
End10.2
red by 4.6
1468
#19
59.60.7
59.159.7
Auto15.7
Teleop40.2
End3.7
Third
5528
#29
44.60.1
41.941.9
Auto8.9
Teleop27.0
End8.8
red by 5.8
810
#26
38.80.7
38.338.9
Auto10.3
Teleop27.1
End1.5