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Red103
460123.3
12811.7
499137.3
Blue134
222862.2
976717.2
788521.5
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions80117050100150200103134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+21
Endgame+35
Fouls+31
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave3
1Coral scored#4
7Coral points20
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +14
17Coral scored#19
61Coral points67
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
12Processor points12
8Net points16
20Algae points28
81Total teleop95
Reef
8L4#9
3L3#7
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
22Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +31
4Foul points0
103Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4991
#12
37.30.4
35.435.8
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End1.2
blue by 24.9
62.21.1
58.459.5
Auto13.7
Teleop39.5
End9.0
Second
4601
#20
23.30.4
22.923.4
Auto3.0
Teleop17.6
End2.8
red by 1.8
7885
#39
21.51.6
21.823.3
Auto4.3
Teleop14.2
End2.9
Third
128
#52
11.70.6
13.013.6
Auto2.4
Teleop7.0
End2.3
blue by 5.5
9767
#45
17.21.1
14.215.3
Auto4.4
Teleop9.8
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
59%Barge oddsMissed50%Barge oddsEarned