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Red78
1030323.7
962221.1
260344.6
Blue88
839327.8
965313.2
12026.4
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions807440506070901001107888

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+26
Endgame+16
Fouls+10
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +33
7Coral scored#14
26Coral points49
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
40Total teleop73
Reef
4L4#5
2L3#4
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
6Foul points0
78Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2603
#16
44.60.5
33.332.9
Auto8.6
Teleop28.1
End7.9
red by 16.9
8393
#41
27.81.3
22.023.3
Auto6.2
Teleop20.6
End1.0
Second
23.76.5
23.717.2
Auto3.5
Teleop17.6
End2.5
blue by 2.7
120
#37
26.41.2
25.626.8
Auto2.3
Teleop20.3
End3.7
Third
9622
#28
21.10.5
14.914.5
Auto2.5
Teleop15.3
End3.3
red by 7.9
9653
#29
13.21.6
14.916.5
Auto2.3
Teleop7.7
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsMissed