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Red137
493032.1
45127.0
201050.4
Blue183
549239.1
432942.8
150764.4
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10314450200137183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+36
Endgame+46
Fouls+46
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave6
3Coral scored#3
15Coral points17
15Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +28
19Coral scored#26
68Coral points94
4Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
24Processor points18
16Net points24
40Algae points42
108Total teleop136
Reef
7L4#10
5L3#9
7L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +46
0Foul points0
137Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.42.5
41.844.2
Auto9.3
Teleop34.8
End6.3
blue by 14.0
64.43.4
54.157.4
Auto12.2
Teleop43.4
End8.8
Second
4930
#27Sur
32.12.3
24.526.7
Auto7.1
Teleop23.0
End1.9
blue by 10.7
4329
#10
42.83.0
39.142.1
Auto9.0
Teleop32.7
End1.1
Third
451
#29
27.02.3
23.525.7
Auto4.0
Teleop21.5
End1.5
blue by 12.1
5492
#6Sur
39.13.0
27.630.6
Auto5.6
Teleop26.3
End7.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned