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Red102
32547.5
225242.8
966816.5
Blue70
313819.7
909723.9
976715.1
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13343010015020010270

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+30Teleop
+20Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points7
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +34
11Coral scored#9
39Coral points31
4Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
24Processor points6
12Net points4
36Algae points10
75Total teleop41
Reef
5L4#4
3L3#2
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
12Foul points0
102Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
325
#5
47.51.5
47.045.5
Auto7.0
Teleop35.5
End5.1
red by 23.6
9097
#13
23.91.5
21.022.4
Auto4.8
Teleop15.5
End3.6
Second
2252
#39
42.81.7
42.640.9
Auto12.1
Teleop30.6
End0.1
red by 23.1
3138
#36
19.71.5
12.814.3
Auto4.5
Teleop12.6
End2.6
Third
9668
#19
16.52.5
16.814.3
Auto3.7
Teleop10.0
End2.8
red by 1.4
9767
#40
15.11.5
11.212.7
Auto3.6
Teleop8.7
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsMissed48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsEarned