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Red160
959741.6
320148.2
32547.5
Blue104
131718.0
791723.2
549239.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15372050100200160104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+44Teleop
+44Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave9
6Coral scored#0
30Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
23Coral scored#19
84Coral points69
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
112Total teleop89
Reef
9L4#8
7L3#5
6L2#3
7L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#23
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
12Foul points0
160Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.20.2
45.044.8
Auto10.8
Teleop28.5
End8.9
red by 9.1
39.10.5
33.233.7
Auto5.6
Teleop26.3
End7.1
Second
325
#5
47.50.2
45.545.3
Auto7.0
Teleop35.5
End5.1
red by 24.3
7917
#33
23.20.5
24.725.3
Auto6.5
Teleop12.1
End4.6
Third
9597
#11
41.60.2
42.642.3
Auto7.0
Teleop32.3
End2.3
red by 23.6
1317
#37
18.00.9
17.818.7
Auto3.9
Teleop13.6
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned81%Barge oddsMissed