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Red196
581141.7
201050.4
414561.4
Blue78
319315.2
1001122.2
45127.0
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions160795010020025019678

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+86Teleop
+118Endgame
+118Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
3Leave6
7Coral scored#1
37Coral points3
40Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +55
24Coral scored#13
88Coral points47
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
120Total teleop65
Reef
8L4#5
11L3#3
6L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
38Game pieces#18
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +118
0Foul points0
196Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.43.4
53.156.5
Auto17.6
Teleop38.4
End5.5
red by 34.4
451
#29
27.00.5
26.526.0
Auto4.0
Teleop21.5
End1.5
Second
50.43.4
45.048.4
Auto9.3
Teleop34.8
End6.3
red by 28.2
22.20.5
19.519.0
Auto5.0
Teleop15.3
End1.8
Third
41.75.7
32.638.3
Auto9.0
Teleop27.8
End5.0
red by 26.5
3193
#41
15.20.8
27.626.8
Auto3.3
Teleop9.3
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned29%Barge oddsMissed