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Red128
45127.0
415020.8
32547.5
Blue122
43221.9
255627.4
603227.8
93%Model gave it7%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1217350100150128122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
+8Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +5
0Leave0
2Coral scored#3
12Coral points17
12Total auto17
TeleoperatedRed +13
19Coral scored#15
70Coral points55
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
6Processor points12
16Net points12
22Algae points24
92Total teleop79
Reef
4L4#7
8L3#4
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
128Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
325
#5
47.51.6
44.846.4
Auto7.0
Teleop35.5
End5.1
red by 19.8
6032
#15
27.85.2
17.422.5
Auto6.4
Teleop16.9
End4.4
Second
451
#29
27.01.6
26.027.6
Auto4.0
Teleop21.5
End1.5
blue by 0.3
2556
#26
27.43.1
23.927.0
Auto3.5
Teleop17.9
End5.9
Third
4150
#22
20.81.6
17.218.8
Auto5.5
Teleop9.6
End5.7
blue by 1.0
432
#34
21.93.1
16.319.4
Auto3.8
Teleop12.7
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsEarned