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Red149
278354.6
959741.6
103818.4
Blue104
313819.7
255627.4
332420.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions144580100200250149104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+49Teleop
+51Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave3
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
20Coral scored#16
73Coral points59
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#1
18Processor points12
12Net points4
30Algae points16
103Total teleop75
Reef
10L4#6
7L3#6
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#20
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
0Foul points6
149Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2783
#12
54.61.7
49.050.7
Auto18.8
Teleop27.0
End8.9
red by 27.3
2556
#26
27.42.7
18.120.8
Auto3.5
Teleop17.9
End5.9
Second
9597
#11
41.62.5
39.842.2
Auto7.0
Teleop32.3
End2.3
red by 21.1
3324
#38
20.53.7
24.928.6
Auto4.2
Teleop15.4
End0.9
Third
1038
#31
18.41.7
23.224.9
Auto3.7
Teleop14.4
End0.4
blue by 1.3
3138
#36
19.72.2
10.212.4
Auto4.5
Teleop12.6
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned39%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsEarned