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Red153
414561.4
320148.2
1001122.2
Blue157
493032.1
201050.4
581141.7
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14213150100200250153157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+20Teleop
+10Endgame
Fouls+4
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave0
8Coral scored#5
41Coral points27
44Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +3
24Coral scored#22
85Coral points78
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
12Processor points12
8Net points12
20Algae points24
105Total teleop102
Reef
15L4#12
9L3#5
5L2#7
3L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points14
153Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.40.5
60.961.4
Auto17.6
Teleop38.4
End5.5
red by 11.0
50.40.5
49.950.4
Auto9.3
Teleop34.8
End6.3
Second
48.20.5
47.748.2
Auto10.8
Teleop28.5
End8.9
red by 6.5
41.70.6
41.141.7
Auto9.0
Teleop27.8
End5.0
Third
22.20.5
21.622.2
Auto5.0
Teleop15.3
End1.8
blue by 9.9
4930
#27
32.10.5
31.632.1
Auto7.1
Teleop23.0
End1.9