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Red180
178765.7
909725.8
412139.5
Blue106
581143.0
871324.8
976718.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14392050200250180106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+58Teleop
+68Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
7Coral scored#2
37Coral points10
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +37
20Coral scored#16
71Coral points58
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#1
12Processor points12
28Net points4
40Algae points16
111Total teleop74
Reef
9L4#7
10L3#5
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
6Foul points0
180Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.72.4
63.966.4
Auto12.6
Teleop41.7
End11.5
red by 22.7
5811
#21
43.00.3
40.440.7
Auto10.5
Teleop27.3
End5.2
Second
39.52.4
35.638.0
Auto6.7
Teleop23.0
End9.8
red by 14.7
8713
#18
24.80.3
24.524.8
Auto4.0
Teleop11.7
End9.0
Third
9097
#14
25.82.4
22.124.6
Auto5.5
Teleop16.8
End3.5
red by 7.1
9767
#30
18.70.3
18.318.6
Auto3.7
Teleop11.6
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
32%Coral oddsEarned15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned70%Barge oddsEarned