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Red176
43222.1
402882.0
131718.8
Blue60
965310.6
426932.6
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15959010020025017660

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+76Teleop
+100Endgame
+116Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
9Leave9
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points3
37Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +51
19Coral scored#10
69Coral points36
3Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
18Processor points0
8Net points8
26Algae points8
95Total teleop44
Reef
10L4#4
6L3#3
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#1
30Game pieces#13
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +116
18Foul points2
176Total score60

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.01.7
76.678.3
Auto20.4
Teleop53.1
End8.6
red by 49.4
4269
#23
32.60.7
31.831.0
Auto3.3
Teleop28.1
End1.2
Second
432
#12
22.11.7
21.923.6
Auto3.5
Teleop11.4
End7.3
red by 11.5
9653
#27
10.60.7
10.710.0
Auto1.4
Teleop6.5
End2.7
Third
1317
#17
18.81.7
17.719.4
Auto3.8
Teleop12.8
End2.2
red by 10.9
7.90.7
9.18.4
Auto4.1
Teleop2.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
52%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned50%Barge oddsMissed