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Red160
87188.3
178761.8
69571.8
Blue117
260344.6
919416.6
461166.9
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14214580100120160180200160117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+31Teleop
+41Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave6
5Coral scored#6
23Coral points31
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +45
24Coral scored#13
85Coral points46
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
109Total teleop64
Reef
8L4#5
11L3#7
7L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +43
2Foul points0
160Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
695
#5
71.80.5
70.170.6
Auto19.6
Teleop44.6
End7.7
red by 4.9
66.90.3
67.166.8
Auto17.4
Teleop43.9
End5.6
Second
61.80.5
60.160.6
Auto11.8
Teleop40.4
End9.6
red by 17.2
44.60.3
44.744.5
Auto9.1
Teleop26.2
End9.3
Third
8718
#23
8.30.5
6.67.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop8.5
End-0.0
blue by 8.3
9194
#22
16.60.3
16.816.5
Auto3.4
Teleop10.9
End2.4