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Red140
260344.6
919416.6
461166.9
Blue103
822227.1
319335.9
541327.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14694050200250140103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+27Teleop
+37Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave0
5Coral scored#4
27Coral points20
30Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +17
14Coral scored#14
52Coral points49
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
84Total teleop67
Reef
5L4#6
7L3#6
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#4
26Game pieces#22
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +37
0Foul points0
140Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.90.2
66.867.0
Auto17.4
Teleop43.9
End5.6
red by 31.0
3193
#14
35.90.2
35.735.9
Auto5.4
Teleop28.6
End2.0
Second
44.60.2
44.544.7
Auto9.1
Teleop26.2
End9.3
red by 17.2
5413
#13
27.40.2
27.227.4
Auto5.0
Teleop16.0
End6.4
Third
9194
#22
16.60.2
16.516.7
Auto3.4
Teleop10.9
End2.4
blue by 10.4
8222
#10
27.10.2
26.827.1
Auto2.0
Teleop17.8
End7.2