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Red146
176435.8
234118.0
406869.3
Blue129
235919.1
208334.2
235240.4
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1319350150200146129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+17Teleop
+17Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave0
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points23
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +4
16Coral scored#18
58Coral points66
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
12Processor points12
16Net points12
28Algae points24
86Total teleop90
Reef
10L4#8
5L3#7
6L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
31Game pieces#28
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points0
146Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.31.4
64.465.8
Auto20.1
Teleop45.9
End3.3
red by 28.9
2352
#37
40.41.9
37.339.2
Auto4.5
Teleop33.7
End2.2
Second
1764
#18
35.81.4
33.334.7
Auto8.3
Teleop25.3
End2.2
red by 1.6
2083
#39
34.21.9
35.437.3
Auto6.9
Teleop24.3
End3.0
Third
2341
#36
18.01.4
14.115.4
Auto5.1
Teleop9.7
End3.2
blue by 1.1
2359
#33
19.11.9
13.015.0
Auto3.9
Teleop13.4
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsEarned15%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsEarned