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Red149
198659.3
176435.8
156161.0
Blue145
271843.8
946219.7
642464.6
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169134100150200250149145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+32Teleop
+2Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave3
10Coral scored#5
48Coral points27
51Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +11
20Coral scored#13
72Coral points45
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
6Processor points18
12Net points16
18Algae points34
90Total teleop79
Reef
13L4#6
8L3#5
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +30
6Cage & park36
6Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +4
2Foul points0
149Total score145

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.00.2
61.461.2
Auto14.4
Teleop39.0
End7.6
blue by 3.6
64.60.4
64.164.5
Auto12.3
Teleop40.8
End11.5
Second
59.30.2
59.759.5
Auto14.7
Teleop38.6
End6.1
red by 15.5
43.80.4
43.343.7
Auto10.2
Teleop29.5
End4.1
Third
1764
#18
35.80.2
36.236.0
Auto8.3
Teleop25.3
End2.2
red by 16.1
9462
#23
19.70.4
19.219.6
Auto5.2
Teleop8.8
End5.7