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Red120
680929.4
1066128.8
555050.6
Blue119
346529.7
460329.7
317935.7
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1189950150200120119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+19
+1Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points14
23Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +22
15Coral scored#20
55Coral points71
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#4
12Processor points6
4Net points16
16Algae points22
71Total teleop93
Reef
8L4#8
4L3#8
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#28
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points0
120Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5550
#12
50.60.3
49.950.2
Auto10.4
Teleop35.5
End4.8
red by 14.9
3179
#24
35.70.6
35.235.7
Auto6.4
Teleop25.2
End4.1
Second
6809
#13
29.40.4
29.029.4
Auto3.6
Teleop17.5
End8.3
blue by 0.3
3465
#27
29.70.6
29.229.7
Auto4.6
Teleop22.6
End2.6
Third
28.80.3
28.028.3
Auto4.9
Teleop17.3
End6.6
blue by 1.0
4603
#11
29.70.6
29.229.7
Auto6.4
Teleop16.7
End6.6