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Red114
3119.4
963111.5
642452.7
Blue37
81127.8
233311.7
871114.5
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10343015011437

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+55Teleop
+77Endgame
+77Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave9
3Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +41
13Coral scored#4
47Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
6Processor points0
12Net points8
18Algae points8
65Total teleop24
Reef
6L4#1
3L3#1
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#6
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +77
0Foul points0
114Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.71.2
49.550.7
Auto12.7
Teleop30.4
End9.6
red by 38.1
8711
#13
14.51.9
20.818.9
Auto3.3
Teleop7.0
End4.1
Second
31
#26
19.42.0
22.424.4
Auto4.6
Teleop8.5
End6.3
red by 7.7
2333
#39
11.71.9
14.812.9
Auto1.7
Teleop8.8
End1.2
Third
9631
#37
11.52.0
12.714.7
Auto1.9
Teleop7.2
End2.5
red by 3.7
8112
#20
7.81.1
7.66.5
Auto5.7
Teleop0.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
67%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsMissed