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Red125
156147.2
324719.1
903113.2
Blue76
1021928.7
87608.4
235912.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions86550204010012014016012576

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+39Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave6
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points3
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +21
13Coral scored#10
48Coral points37
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
18Processor points12
16Net points12
34Algae points24
82Total teleop61
Reef
7L4#3
6L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#16
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
125Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.25.0
42.047.0
Auto11.3
Teleop30.9
End5.0
red by 18.5
28.70.9
25.426.3
Auto2.4
Teleop25.1
End1.2
Second
3247
#17
19.15.0
18.423.3
Auto2.7
Teleop14.8
End1.7
red by 6.9
2359
#38
12.21.5
15.817.4
Auto2.7
Teleop7.6
End1.9
Third
9031
#15
13.23.0
9.112.1
Auto3.7
Teleop7.4
End2.1
red by 4.7
8760
#41
8.40.9
9.210.2
Auto3.4
Teleop5.1
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned10%Barge oddsMissed