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Red91
1016724.6
663231.6
263427.7
Blue103
373951.2
713616.4
130531.8
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions881045015020091103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+24
Endgame+12
Fouls+12
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
2Coral scored#4
9Coral points22
15Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +17
8Coral scored#15
30Coral points55
4Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
24Processor points12
8Net points12
32Algae points24
62Total teleop79
Reef
4L4#5
3L3#7
2L2#5
1L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#24
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
0Foul points0
91Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6632
#24
31.60.7
29.630.3
Auto5.1
Teleop18.9
End7.6
blue by 19.6
3739
#21
51.20.6
43.243.8
Auto9.0
Teleop39.8
End2.4
Second
2634
#33
27.70.7
25.726.5
Auto4.3
Teleop22.4
End0.9
blue by 4.1
1305
#17
31.80.6
30.030.7
Auto10.8
Teleop19.2
End1.8
Third
24.60.7
24.925.6
Auto5.8
Teleop18.2
End0.6
red by 8.2
7136
#44
16.40.6
20.120.8
Auto4.0
Teleop12.2
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed