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Red203
834928.7
494044.1
415270.4
Blue133
263427.7
591242.6
775715.4
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18511350100150200250203133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+38Teleop
+64Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave3
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points27
40Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +28
26Coral scored#16
93Coral points59
3Processor algae#4
5Net algae#5
18Processor points24
20Net points20
38Algae points44
131Total teleop103
Reef
11L4#9
7L3#6
10L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
41Game pieces#30
BargeRed +26
26Cage & park0
26Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
6Foul points0
203Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4152
#12
70.41.4
67.969.3
Auto21.2
Teleop40.8
End8.5
red by 27.9
5912
#39
42.60.4
41.742.1
Auto9.9
Teleop32.5
End0.2
Second
44.11.4
42.744.0
Auto5.0
Teleop30.5
End8.5
red by 16.4
2634
#33
27.70.4
27.928.4
Auto4.3
Teleop22.4
End0.9
Third
8349
#15
28.71.4
26.027.4
Auto5.5
Teleop18.0
End5.1
red by 13.3
7757
#50
15.40.4
18.118.5
Auto4.1
Teleop11.3
End0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsEarned16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed