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Red271
2056110.7
467897.4
790242.1
Blue251
747644.2
494686.9
540989.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions264228200250300350271251

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+16Teleop
+36Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
6Leave0
14Coral scored#12
72Coral points58
78Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +4
33Coral scored#31
117Coral points113
3Processor algae#5
5Net algae#4
18Processor points30
20Net points16
38Algae points46
155Total teleop159
Reef
13L4#16
10L3#10
15L2#12
9L1 · trough#5
55Game pieces#52
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +20
2Foul points18
271Total score251

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
110.70.3
110.1110.4
Auto31.3
Teleop69.1
End10.3
red by 21.4
89.30.1
89.389.4
Auto25.2
Teleop61.1
End3.0
Second
97.40.3
96.897.0
Auto26.2
Teleop61.2
End9.9
red by 10.4
86.90.1
86.987.0
Auto20.8
Teleop55.4
End10.7
Third
7902
#31
42.10.3
41.541.8
Auto10.9
Teleop23.6
End7.6
blue by 2.1
7476
#19
44.20.1
44.244.3
Auto6.6
Teleop34.7
End3.0