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Red122
406953.9
491767.4
956220.5
Blue102
270258.6
958026.3
238635.5
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13710950100150200122102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+12Teleop
+22Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
6Leave3
7Coral scored#3
35Coral points13
41Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +13
13Coral scored#9
45Coral points32
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#6
6Processor points12
4Net points24
10Algae points36
55Total teleop68
Reef
9L4#4
3L3#4
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points2
122Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4917
#10
67.40.3
60.960.6
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
red by 8.8
2702
#12
58.60.2
45.645.4
Auto7.3
Teleop43.2
End8.1
Second
4069
#11
53.90.3
45.244.9
Auto14.7
Teleop33.4
End5.8
red by 18.4
2386
#25
35.50.2
34.734.4
Auto8.9
Teleop22.1
End4.5
Third
9562
#49
20.50.3
20.220.0
Auto6.0
Teleop11.9
End2.6
blue by 5.7
9580
#46
26.30.2
23.122.8
Auto5.6
Teleop18.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsMissed62%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsEarned