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Red176
588548.5
906236.0
540989.3
Blue95
567237.0
260937.2
872938.9
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions157845010020025017695

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+51Auto
+101Teleop
+81Endgame
+81Fouls
AutonomousRed +51
6Leave0
10Coral scored#1
51Coral points6
57Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +50
16Coral scored#12
59Coral points43
4Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
24Processor points6
32Net points16
56Algae points22
115Total teleop65
Reef
11L4#5
7L3#3
6L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +81
0Foul points0
176Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
89.32.1
84.786.8
Auto25.2
Teleop61.1
End3.0
red by 50.4
8729
#18
38.90.5
27.728.2
Auto7.8
Teleop29.1
End2.1
Second
5885
#30
48.52.1
30.132.1
Auto16.8
Teleop29.9
End1.9
red by 11.3
2609
#34
37.20.5
31.431.9
Auto5.7
Teleop24.1
End7.3
Third
9062
#22
36.02.1
30.332.3
Auto8.5
Teleop26.6
End0.9
blue by 1.0
5672
#28
37.00.5
28.529.0
Auto5.4
Teleop26.3
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed85%Barge oddsEarned