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Red151
18859.8
260937.2
808142.3
Blue81
133421.1
748048.4
375627.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1461085020025015181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+50Teleop
+70Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave6
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +22
21Coral scored#14
74Coral points52
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
88Total teleop66
Reef
9L4#6
8L3#5
6L2#3
4L1 · trough#1
30Game pieces#18
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
2Foul points2
151Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
188
#21
59.81.4
52.854.1
Auto18.2
Teleop36.0
End5.5
red by 11.4
7480
#16
48.41.5
46.144.6
Auto10.7
Teleop33.0
End4.7
Second
8081
#26
42.31.4
35.937.3
Auto8.1
Teleop24.6
End9.7
red by 15.1
3756
#48
27.31.5
27.225.7
Auto1.2
Teleop21.6
End4.4
Third
2609
#34
37.21.4
37.138.5
Auto5.7
Teleop24.1
End7.3
red by 16.0
1334
#50
21.11.5
25.123.6
Auto4.3
Teleop16.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsMissed