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Red102
956220.5
492047.1
122935.4
Blue156
491767.4
468829.5
672534.3
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99130406080120140160180200102156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+38
Endgame+42
Fouls+54
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave0
3Coral scored#6
16Coral points30
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +27
14Coral scored#19
49Coral points68
3Processor algae#3
3Net algae#5
18Processor points18
12Net points20
30Algae points38
79Total teleop106
Reef
8L4#11
3L3#6
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +54
2Foul points14
102Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4920
#44
47.10.4
47.147.6
Auto14.5
Teleop31.5
End1.1
blue by 20.3
4917
#10
67.41.8
60.462.1
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
Second
1229
#38
35.40.4
27.127.5
Auto6.2
Teleop27.3
End1.9
red by 1.1
6725
#32
34.31.8
29.831.6
Auto7.7
Teleop25.0
End1.7
Third
9562
#49
20.50.4
19.419.9
Auto6.0
Teleop11.9
End2.6
blue by 9.0
4688
#36
29.51.8
25.126.9
Auto4.1
Teleop24.0
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsMissed82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed73%Barge oddsMissed