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Red111
316153.0
748048.4
260937.2
Blue126
567237.0
77236.3
491767.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14110150150200111126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+9
Endgame+27
Fouls+15
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points7
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +16
14Coral scored#13
50Coral points48
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#5
12Processor points18
8Net points20
20Algae points38
70Total teleop86
Reef
6L4#6
4L3#3
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
12Foul points0
111Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3161
#23
53.02.0
49.447.4
Auto12.6
Teleop33.3
End7.1
blue by 14.4
4917
#10
67.41.8
58.260.0
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
Second
7480
#16
48.42.0
45.943.9
Auto10.7
Teleop33.0
End4.7
red by 11.4
5672
#28
37.01.8
21.423.2
Auto5.4
Teleop26.3
End5.2
Third
2609
#34
37.22.0
33.731.7
Auto5.7
Teleop24.1
End7.3
red by 0.9
772
#45
36.31.8
19.421.2
Auto5.0
Teleop28.7
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned