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Red173
61070.9
697843.6
771238.7
Blue150
491767.4
122935.4
495130.9
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15511850100200250173150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+25Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
8Coral scored#7
38Coral points33
47Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +11
22Coral scored#16
78Coral points59
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
18Processor points18
16Net points24
34Algae points42
112Total teleop101
Reef
14L4#11
10L3#5
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
173Total score150

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
610
#8
70.92.2
64.266.4
Auto17.2
Teleop45.5
End8.2
red by 3.6
4917
#10
67.42.5
60.763.2
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
Second
6978
#15
43.62.2
39.742.0
Auto7.7
Teleop34.3
End1.7
red by 8.2
1229
#38
35.42.5
27.129.6
Auto6.2
Teleop27.3
End1.9
Third
7712
#33
38.72.2
35.437.7
Auto6.6
Teleop28.2
End3.9
red by 7.8
4951
#13
30.92.5
24.627.1
Auto6.3
Teleop23.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
63%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsEarned