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Red227
220079.9
978227.6
2056110.7
Blue101
497652.4
133421.1
260937.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions248113050150200300227101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+49Auto
+118Teleop
+122Endgame
+126Fouls
AutonomousRed +49
0Leave6
13Coral scored#2
65Coral points10
65Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +69
22Coral scored#11
80Coral points39
3Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
18Processor points6
32Net points16
50Algae points22
130Total teleop61
Reef
13L4#3
12L3#3
4L2#4
6L1 · trough#3
46Game pieces#18
BargeRed +4
20Cage & park16
20Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +126
12Foul points8
227Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
110.70.3
107.4107.6
Auto31.3
Teleop69.1
End10.3
red by 58.3
4976
#20
52.41.3
55.153.7
Auto14.6
Teleop30.6
End7.2
Second
79.90.3
80.981.1
Auto23.8
Teleop54.6
End1.6
red by 42.8
2609
#34
37.21.3
38.837.4
Auto5.7
Teleop24.1
End7.3
Third
9782
#35
27.60.3
22.522.8
Auto6.0
Teleop19.5
End2.1
red by 6.5
1334
#50
21.11.3
19.317.9
Auto4.3
Teleop16.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsEarned22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned