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Red140
672534.3
748048.4
909863.9
Blue129
77236.3
430843.1
588548.5
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions158118050100200250140129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
Teleop+9
+15Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousBlue +5
6Leave3
6Coral scored#8
31Coral points39
37Total auto42
TeleoperatedBlue +4
12Coral scored#16
43Coral points59
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
18Processor points6
16Net points16
34Algae points22
77Total teleop81
Reef
5L4#7
5L3#9
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#29
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points4
140Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.90.0
64.664.5
Auto15.5
Teleop36.4
End11.9
red by 15.4
5885
#30
48.50.8
41.942.7
Auto16.8
Teleop29.9
End1.9
Second
7480
#16
48.40.0
43.743.6
Auto10.7
Teleop33.0
End4.7
red by 5.3
4308
#29
43.10.8
41.642.4
Auto8.4
Teleop32.6
End2.1
Third
6725
#32
34.30.0
32.432.3
Auto7.7
Teleop25.0
End1.7
blue by 1.9
772
#45
36.30.8
29.330.1
Auto5.0
Teleop28.7
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed