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Red125
587033.5
909863.9
567237.0
Blue165
492047.1
220079.9
697843.6
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141178100150200250125165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
Teleop+52
Endgame+46
Fouls+40
AutonomousBlue +28
6Leave0
3Coral scored#10
17Coral points51
23Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +24
13Coral scored#21
48Coral points74
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
18Processor points12
16Net points20
34Algae points32
82Total teleop106
Reef
6L4#9
4L3#8
3L2#8
3L1 · trough#6
23Game pieces#38
BargeRed +6
14Cage & park8
14Total endgame8
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +40
6Foul points0
125Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.91.1
63.362.2
Auto15.5
Teleop36.4
End11.9
blue by 16.0
79.90.4
81.881.4
Auto23.8
Teleop54.6
End1.6
Second
5672
#28
37.01.1
37.236.1
Auto5.4
Teleop26.3
End5.2
blue by 10.1
4920
#44
47.10.4
48.047.5
Auto14.5
Teleop31.5
End1.1
Third
5870
#42
33.51.1
35.434.3
Auto4.5
Teleop27.3
End1.6
blue by 10.1
6978
#15
43.60.4
41.741.3
Auto7.7
Teleop34.3
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
45%Coral oddsMissed51%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned15%Barge oddsMissed