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Red129
956935.2
77236.3
133421.1
Blue156
872938.9
771238.7
238635.5
15%Model gave it85%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions85122050100150200129156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+17
Endgame+27
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave0
4Coral scored#6
21Coral points29
21Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +9
23Coral scored#24
82Coral points87
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
12Processor points12
8Net points12
20Algae points24
102Total teleop111
Reef
14L4#12
5L3#9
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#5
31Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
0Foul points0
129Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
772
#45
36.32.1
32.434.5
Auto5.0
Teleop28.7
End2.6
blue by 2.6
8729
#18
38.92.2
38.040.2
Auto7.8
Teleop29.1
End2.1
Second
9569
#24
35.22.1
32.534.7
Auto6.9
Teleop26.7
End1.6
blue by 3.6
7712
#33
38.72.2
38.140.3
Auto6.6
Teleop28.2
End3.9
Third
1334
#50
21.12.1
18.120.2
Auto4.3
Teleop16.2
End0.7
blue by 14.4
2386
#25
35.52.2
32.534.7
Auto8.9
Teleop22.1
End4.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsEarned